The Known and the Unknown

By Garry Douglas

As I write this, we have seen the start and then second postponement of 25% tariffs on Canada, turning a stable, collaborative bi-national economic partnership into an unprecedented rollercoaster ride. And while we, of course, welcomed the latest postponement to April 2, it feels like the guy who’s being hit on the head with a hammer every 10 minutes and then having it change to every 30 minutes. He welcomes the longer interlude, but really needs for the hammer blows to stop.

We determined that our best and continuing response is to avoid the politics and avoid anger and instead relentlessly cite facts about the impacts that tariffs on Canada would have on an integrated border region like ours, helping to change the national and bi-national media focus from the macro level to clearer, real-life examples. Facts, repeated over and over, can be stubborn and powerful things. And we have attracted media attention nationally and internationally including the likes of the Wall Street Journal, Reuter’s, CBC, the National Post and many others. Our words have been referenced in Washington and Ottawa.

The impact of any extensive tariffs on Canada would be broad, touching every North Country business and resident. For example:

ENERGY: A 10% tax on all of our natural gas, on much of our heating fuel and gasoline coming from Montreal, and on our electricity which partly comes from Quebec and Ontario.

CONSTRUCTION: Adding further cost to most construction materials, including lumber, steel, aluminum, and cement and asphalt which come 100% from Quebec in our region.

AGRICULTURE: With 100% of New York’s potash coming from Canada as well as sileage from Manitoba for North Country dairy farms.

MANUFACTURING: Especially in our large and diverse manufacturing base, the U.S. and Canada are making things together, meaning a 25% cost increase on many raw materials and components which must cross the border. One local manufacturer foresees a $16 million cost hike in one of their essential inputs.

TOURISM: February car counts at the border have already shown a 10-20% drop in visitation. If we push Canada into a recession, expect this to multiply.

And so, we know what we know, but there are mounting costs from the unknown as well. Business is resilient and will often find ways, but a giant economic partnership built on reliability and predictability has been roiled and that has impacted the connection for a long time to come.

We need the roller coaster ride to come to a stop back at its beginning.